Sunday, January 29, 2012

Lean Six Sigma (LSS) Popularity Levels are Up…per Google data


I recently wrote an article on the popularity of 24 popular business improvement initiatives and ranked their popularity levels against each other. The data for this analysis was obtained from the Google Keyword Tools, which tracks how often a search term was used per month for the last 12 months. Lean Six Sigma (LSS) ranked 6th in overall worldwide popularity as a Google search phrase for 2011 compared to the 23 other business improvement initiatives under investigation. Ever since 2004, interest in Lean is relatively stable with slight ups and downs but interest in Six Sigma is down 60%. However, the combination of these 2 techniques (LSS) showed a 2.7-fold increase in popularity since 2004. Google data does not go back further than 2004.

Determining the Popularity of the search phrase “Lean Six Sigma”
To find out the average number of people who actually searched for Lean Sigma every month over the last 12 months, go to the Google Keyword Tool Box. In that Tool Box, click on the Google Keyword Tool and fill in the information as shown below in the top keyword entry box. After selecting “Search”, the results will be given as shown below. The average monthly number of worldwide searches for the phrase “Lean Six Sigma” was 246,000 for the “Business & Industrial” category. That search was initiated 90,500 times per month just from the USA (Local Monthly Searches).

Creating Trend Charts for the Popularity of the Search Phrase “Lean Six Sigma”
Google Insights for Search offers access to Google search data all the way back to 2004, worldwide or for specific countries with Google’s charting capability of their data online. Those charts can also be broken down by different categories. The following Google Insights for Search chart was created for “all business categories” for the key phrase “Lean Six Sigma”. The numbers on the Y-Axis for the time chart and the bar chart numerical labels shown below are just relative numbers and are not an indication of actual search numbers. The trends on Google charts are “relative” trends, which compares the popularity of LSS with other search terms.

The above trend chart shows that interest in LSS rose 2.7-fold from 2004 to 2007 and stayed stable from that point to today, January 7th, 2012. The apparent dip in January, 2012 is because the first few slow interest days in 2012 are being used by the chart to represent the whole month of January. The end of January will be a better time to redo this chart with updated data from the whole month of January.

The above bar chart, below the trend chart, shows that Singapore led the worldwide interest in LSS as a search phrase, followed by India, Netherlands, USA, Ireland, Hong Kong, New Zealand, South Africa, Malaysia and Australia.  The darker the region on the world map, the higher the relative popularity of Lean Six Sigma as a search word. CAUTION, this rank can be deceiving because it does not show the rank based on the actual total numbers of searches but rather on the relative popularity of that search term compared to other search terms for those countries.

For example, Singapore is listed on the top spot but the Google key word tool tells us that Singapore only initiated a monthly average of 1,900 searches over the last 12 months. The USA is ranked in 4th spot on the above chart but it initiated a monthly average of 90,500 searches over the last 12 months. These top 10 countries on the above bar chart accounted for only 47% of the actual search volume for the key phrase for Lean Six Sigma, per data gathered by the Google Keyword Tool. You would have to initiate a separate analysis for each country individually with that tool to get actual country search numbers per month.

To keep the rise in Lean Six Sigma popularity in perspective, “Lean” as a Google key word was still 20 times more popular than “Lean Six Sigma” was in 2011. “Six Sigma” was 4 times more popular than “Lean Six Sigma” was in 2011 but LSS is on the rise while its 2 source business initiatives were either stable (Lean) or in decline (Six Sigma) since 2004. The following graph shows the relative popularity of Lean, Six Sigma and Lean Six Sigma on one Google Insights for Search  graph. Although the chart shows “relative” trends of the data compared to other search terms, it is fair to compare the 3 curves against each other to evaluate their relative popularity.

Average Monthly Number of "Lean Six Sigma" Google Searches for 2011
I used the Google Keyword tool to get the actual average monthly number of "Lean Six Sigma" Google searches for 2011 for every country in the world. This data was used to create the true numerical ranked search interest by country (see chart below) and not the relative popularity of a search term given in the “Google Insights for Search” bar graph. The top 34 countries of the world shown on the bar graph below account for 96.8% of all Google search volume for the search term: “Lean Six Sigma”. According to the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK, there are 250 recognized countries in the world as of January, 2012. Otherwise stated, about 13.6% of the world’s countries account for 96.8% of the world’s interest in Lean Six Sigma, via Google internet searches in 2011.

In the above chart, China and Hong Kong (a special administrative region of China) were combined. Google separates them in their search data.

Trend Chart for Web Searchers interested in “Lean Six Sigma Training”
It is one thing to seek information about a topic on the web but possibly a very different level of seriousness when one seeks information about “training” on a certain topic. This does not imply that someone is actually going to sign up for the training but it does show that the searcher is willing to learn about how to be trained on a topic and not just be become quickly informed on a topic via information or a few articles on the web.

The worldwide number of searches for “Lean Six Sigma Training” was 9,900 per month for 2011, which was only 4% of the search volume for “Lean Six Sigma” as a search phrase. However, during this same period of rising interest in Lean Six Sigma Training, worldwide interest in the general search word “training” dropped 40% between 2004 and the present day. The trend chart below compares search interest in 3 different search phrases as labeled on the chart.

Trend Chart for Web Searchers interested in “Lean Six Sigma Certification”
Seeking information on the web about LSS training and certification are almost synonymous, yet different. Someone seeking certification might be considered a more serious search than someone just seeking training in a topic but that is open for interpretation and debate. The chart below shows the worldwide interest in three different key phrases.

Keeping this in perspective, the worldwide number of searches for “Lean Six Sigma Certification” was 6,600 per month for 2011, which was only 2.7% of the search volume for the search term “Lean Six Sigma”. During this same period of rising interest in Lean Six Sigma Certification, worldwide interest in the general search word “Certification” dropped 33% between 2004 and the present day.

Summary
Lean Six Sigma has gained popularity as a hybrid problem solving technique, worldwide, with hot spot countries showing interest and many other countries showing little interest. The rise in popularity of LSS and sustained interest during bad economic times might hint that it is being perceived as a tool set and methodology that is useful to companies in good and in bad times. It is also worthwhile training for many professionals to pursue due to the increasing number of jobs that require a minimum level of knowledge on the topic as a prerequisite.


About the Author: David Patrishkoff is President of E3 Extreme Enterprise Efficiency® LLC. He has trained 3,000+ professionals, worldwide from over 55 different industries in Lean, Six Sigma and other advanced problem solving techniques. His proven specialty is the resolution of highly diverse “Mission Impossible” issues for organizations. Visit his website for training, coaching and consulting services: http://www.eeefficiency.com

Monday, January 16, 2012

The Worldwide Popularity of TRIZ & Other Innovation-Related Search Terms is Dropping … per Google Data


Abstract
There is a mixed-message news flash for TRIZ and Innovation connoisseurs. The general popularity of specific innovation-related keywords as a Google search term is high but they have been steadily trending down since 2004. The bad economy and recession are not directly linked with this drop since innovation topics have been falling out of favor as a search pursuit a few years before the housing bust and bad economy arrived on the scene.

What is TRIZ?
TRIZ is the Science of Inventive Problem Solving, which was developed by the Soviet inventor and science fiction author Genrich Altshuller and his colleagues, in 1946. It is based on the premise that great creativity can be a learned skill. It gives optimism for a more innovative future and hopes that the best ideas do not always have to come out of highly funded “Think Tanks” or from innovation geniuses.

Today, TRIZ specialists from different companies and associations have created a wide array of training programs, specialized techniques and software that supplement the early work of Altshuller. In order to maintain worldwide clarity, common ground and a clear definition of what TRIZ actually is, a TRIZ Institute and 2 TRIZ associations created a TRIZ Body of Knowledge to fill that need.

TRIZ Popularity Levels and Trends as a Search Term
Any search analysis of short terms and especially acronyms like TRIZ are risky because the acronyms can mean many different things in different countries than what a web searcher might actually be looking for. For example, the average monthly web searches for “TRIZ” in Brazil was incredibly high (74,000) in 2011. That would make Brazil the #1 fan of innovation-based TRIZ, if it were true. However, innovation-based TRIZ interest is not that high in Brazil for a few different reasons. TRIZ is also the name of an ESPN TV sports program in Brazil. “POR UM TRIZ” is a movie title (Out of Time) released in Brazil starring Denzel Washington and are part of the lyrics in a popular song. TRIZ is the name of a music band in Brazil, the name of a antihistamine, a brand of glue in South America, Chinese Export firm, etc.

Due to these issues, estimated Innovation-TRIZ popularity numbers in Brazil should be reduced by a figure of 70,000 searches per month for 2011 to reflect the real story. That puts an accurate assessment of TRIZ popularity in 8h place when compared to 23 other business improvement initiatives.

According to data from the Google Keyword Tool, there is an average of 246,000 worldwide searches that were initiated each month in 2011 on the web for the Business and Industrial search category for TRIZ. I estimate that the true innovation-based TRIZ interest is more accurately estimated as 176,000, due to the other uses for the term TRIZ, as mentioned. The adjusted 2011 TRIZ popularity rank is shown below, which also includes 23 other Business Improvement Initiatives. As seen here, there are huge differences in the popularity levels of certain business initiative search terms.


As impressive as the bulk of monthly worldwide searches were in 2011 for specific innovation-related terms (see chart below), they have all seen a 25 – 67% drop in popularity since 2004. The bar chart below shows the average monthly search volume for specific term for 2011. As seen here, TRIZ is not yet at par with other common innovation words rolling through the minds of worldwide web searchers. Altshuller, the founder of TRIZ, does not attract much attention. If the TRIZ founder’s full name “Genrich Altshuller” were tested for popularity, the numbers drop quite a bit more that what is shown on the chart below.


Google Trends and Google Insights for Search tools were used to determine the popularity trends for TRIZ and other innovation-related terms. In spite of this grand number of searches initiated each month by the would-be innovators of the world, interest in TRIZ and its founder Genrich Altshuller is down 55% since 2004. Other business improvement initiatives do not appear to be stealing fans away from TRIZ since most of their numbers are also down sharply since 2004. TRIZ is not the only creativity-based search words that are waning in popularity. This short list of other similar search terms might be a signal that other priorities are displacing innovation topics as a popular interest and pursuit in life and business:
  1. Patent – down 67%
  2. Invention – down 60%
  3. Creativity – down 40%
  4. Innovation – down 25%
ARIZ (Algorithm for Inventive Problems Solving) is also a popular TRIZ concept that was not included in this search analysis because 98% of the time, it is associated with the abbreviation for the State of Arizona, in the USA, which has no direct association with TRIZ.

Search Popularity Levels for some Non-Innovation Terms
We all know the phrase: “You are what you eat”. In a digital world, it might also be true that: “You are what you search”. Is the general population of the world less interested in innovation and thinking that true innovation is beyond them? It’s also interesting to note that worldwide Google web search interest in keywords like “training” and “MBA” are also down over 40% since 2004. How people get their information is changing. Interest in the search term “blog” is up 4-fold since 2004, while the interest in “Newspaper” and Magazine” are down over 50% for the same time frame.

Popularity & Trend Charts for Innovation-Related Search Terms
Shown below are 6 trend charts for search words mentioned so far (Patent, Invention, TRIZ, Altshuller, Creativity & Innovation). The charts were created with the Google Insights for Search charting tool, which accesses Google search data, ever since 2004. They are shown in order of the most severe drop in popularity to the smallest drop in popularity.


Trend Charts for Economy-Related Search Terms
There is no apparent correlation to metrics from the bad economy for this drop in innovation interest. This drop of interest in innovation as a general down trend started before the big recession hit and was not directly affected at the peak of the recession. A trend chart for interest in a web search that included the word “recession” is shown below. TRIZ and other innovation key words do not appear to correlate with or be influenced by general interest peaks in search terms like “recession”.
Unfortunately, popularity of search keywords like “unemployment” is up since 2008, as shown below.

TRIZ search Popularity in 2011 by Country
Below each Google Insights for Search trend chart created with this Google tool is a bar chart ranking the keyword popularity by country, as shown below for a TRIZ analysis. This chart is very deceiving and misleading. Its intentions are good because it does not want to favor big countries that have a lot of web search activity, which might always come out on top of a search analysis. This country rank for TRIZ has little to do with the actual search numbers and everything to do with how TRIZ compares to the popularity of other search terms.

The actual numbers of searches ranked by country looks very different than the above chart. That information can be extracted from the Google Keyword Tool but, interestingly enough, the actual numbers for every country of the world are available except for Iran, which was ranked on first place on the Google Insights for Search country rank, shown above.

Shown below are the actual average monthly searches in 2011 for the top 36 countries of the world for the word TRIZ included in a Google search. Brazil numbers were adjusted from 74,000 to 4,000 as mentioned previously to show its true interest in Innovation-TRIZ compared to other non-innovation uses for the search term TRIZ in Brazil.

Trend Charts for the Biggest 3 Country Fans of TRIZ
Looking at just TRIZ popularity as a search term in the USA, Mexico and Germany also shows a 50 - 65% decline in interest in TRIZ as a search term since 2004. The 3 charts below show the details of those trends.

 
Summary
Search popularity for terms like Patents, Invention, Creativity, Innovation and TRIZ has dropped since 2004. TRIZ specifically, is not synonymous for the citizens of the world yet for innovation. In spite of that handicap, TRIZ (The Science of Inventive Problem Solving) still enjoys respectable levels of popularity in 2011 as a Google search, even when other non-innovation meanings for the TRIZ search numbers are subtracted from its popularity rating. TRIZ popularity has dropped since 2004, in line with many other business improvement initiatives.  Maybe TRIZ techniques and analysis should be used to determine why this is happening and how to turn around world interest levels in Innovation.